California governor race: UC Berkeley poll shows two Republicans leading ahead of June primary

In a new poll released on March 18, 2026, the California governor race appears unexpectedly fragmented, with conservative commentator Steve Hilton polling at 17% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco at 16% of likely voters, placing the two Republicans narrowly ahead of their rivals as the June primary approaches.

The survey, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies from March 9–14 among 5,019 registered voters online in English and Spanish, shows Democrats clustered at lower levels: Representatives Eric Swalwell and Katie Porter at 13% each, and activist and donor Tom Steyer at 10% after roughly $50 million in television advertising since December. Other Democratic contenders measured 5% or less — including former HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra (5%), former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (4%), San José Mayor Matt Mahan (4%), with former Controller Betty Yee and Superintendent Tony Thurmond at 1% each — while 16% were undecided or supported other candidates. The poll reports a 2.5-point margin of error for the full sample.

Because California’s top-two primary on June 2 advances only the two highest vote-getters regardless of party, analysts warn low name recognition and split Democratic support could compress the field. Voters prioritized affordability issues — four in ten named reducing the cost of living a top concern — and unions and party officials have urged strategic decisions by lower-polling candidates as the race moves toward mail ballots and the June primary.