Colorado State University Forecasts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to feature fewer storms than normal, according to a forecast released Thursday by Colorado State University's Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling and Software team. Researchers estimate the upcoming season will produce 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes—both numbers falling below the historical average for the Atlantic basin.

The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, with most tropical activity typically peaking between August and October. The annual forecast, unveiled months ahead of hurricane season, is closely watched by officials and residents in hurricane-prone coastal regions across Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the Eastern Seaboard as they prepare for potential threats.

Lead author Phil Klotzbach noted at a news conference that the April outlook comes with uncertainties, stating, "There are curveballs that could come our way." The forecast is set for updates as the season progresses and conditions evolve, with additional updates expected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the coming weeks.

One of the primary factors influencing this year's below-average forecast is the anticipated arrival of El Niño conditions later this spring or summer, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The phenomenon, which alters sea surface temperatures and weather patterns, is linked to fewer and less intense Atlantic hurricanes. The center indicates a 61% likelihood that El Niño will develop by July and persist through the end of the year, potentially reducing hurricane activity during the heart of the season.

Researchers project a roughly 32% chance of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline in 2026, and a 35% chance of landfall in the Caribbean. While these likelihoods are below average, experts caution that even a single powerful storm can cause significant local impacts. The 2025 season ended without any U.S. hurricane landfalls—marking a decade first—but islands in the Caribbean, including Jamaica, suffered severe damage from Hurricane Melissa, a Category 5 storm.

The World Meteorological Organization has already determined the names for the 2026 storms, beginning with Arthur and continuing through Vicky and Wilfred. A storm is given a name once it reaches wind speeds of 39 mph, and becomes a hurricane at 74 mph. Hurricanes with wind speeds topping 111 mph qualify as "major" storms under the Saffir-Simpson Scale due to their potential for catastrophic destruction.

Colorado State University's forecast will be revised as new data emerges during the season, but officials urge all coastal residents to prepare thoroughly regardless of predictions.