Canada US Conflict Puts New Yorks Energy Grid at Risk
Rising Tensions and Energy Security
The ongoing trade conflict between Canada and the United States shows no sign of resolution, and the consequences are spreading far beyond tariffs and trade balances. For New York State, the dispute has raised alarming questions about the reliability of its energy grid and the security of its long-term power supply.
Threats to New York Consumers
New York energy consumers stand at the front line of this battle. Ontario Premier Doug Ford previously signaled that if tariffs on Canadian energy were imposed, his province would retaliate not only by adding surcharges but by threatening to cut off electricity exports altogether. His statement that he would do so “with a smile” underscored just how precarious the situation has become. Energy cutoffs are not abstract risks — grid failures can cause devastating impacts, including widespread loss of life.
Dependence on Quebec Power
New York has pursued a decade-long plan to rely heavily on electricity imported from Quebec through the Champlain Hudson Power Express (CHPE), a transmission project designed to carry power from Hydro Quebec to New York City via a 300-mile cable buried under the Hudson River and Lake Champlain. The project was envisioned as a cornerstone of the state’s clean energy transition after the closure of nuclear and gas-powered plants. But with construction still incomplete and political trust eroding, the reliability of this plan is now in serious doubt.
Political and National Security Risks
Even if the CHPE is completed, political realities raise further obstacles. A U.S. president could reasonably conclude that New York — home to the nation’s financial capital — should not depend on a foreign power for essential energy needs. The goal of U.S. energy independence has long been a central theme of national policy, and reliance on Canadian energy directly conflicts with that vision.
National security concerns compound the risks. Submarine cables buried in major waterways could be vulnerable to sabotage, as global examples like the Nord Stream pipeline attack illustrate. Energy security is not only about cost and supply but also about protecting critical infrastructure from threats both foreign and domestic.
Lessons From Policy Precedents
Presidential powers over national energy policy have already shaped outcomes in dramatic ways, such as the cancellation of the Keystone Pipeline by executive order. That example demonstrates how projects years in the making can be reversed overnight due to political shifts. New York’s dependence on CHPE could be similarly exposed to changes in leadership and international relations.
An Unreliable Partnership
Canada’s retaliatory rhetoric has revealed a troubling reality — that energy from north of the border cannot be considered a fully reliable foundation for New York’s grid. The trade conflict has turned what was once seen as a promising solution into a liability. Agreements and contracts tied to CHPE appear fragile, with their value undermined by political instability and cross-border threats.
A Mirage of Reliability
The greatest danger of CHPE lies not only in whether it can be completed but in the false sense of security it provides. By relying so heavily on an external source of power, New York risks losing time that could have been used to secure reliable, domestic alternatives. The result could leave the state’s grid more vulnerable than ever.
A Flawed Vision Exposed
The Champlain Hudson Power Express, once envisioned as a bold solution more than a decade ago, now stands revealed as an outdated plan built on assumptions that no longer hold true. The warning signals sounded by political leaders cannot be ignored. For New York, the reliability of its grid — and the welfare of its people — is too critical to be left in the hands of uncertain foreign partnerships and policies.